Effectiveness evaluation of discrete macromodelling to forecast power consumption of electric power system component elements

Lviv Polytechnic National University
Lviv Polytechnic National University
Lviv Polytechnic National University

The paper is concerned with a method intended for forecasting electric power consumption using discrete macromodels of daily and annual electric power consumption of defined objects. The method provides the possibility of estimating qualitative characteristics of future electric power consumption based on known prior data. The procedure of develop­ment of a mathematical macromodel for the electric power consumption forecasting by using the evolution algorithms is described; it is based on the discrete autonomous macromodels in the form of state equations using "black box" approach. A discrete auto­nomous macromodel of annual power consumption of a real component element has been developed as a test example for the proposed technique. Effectiveness of the discrete equation apparatus application for power consumption forecasting of electric utilities has been evaluated.

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