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  4. Predicting seismic activity basing on complex geophysical monitoring of seismotectonic processes

Predicting seismic activity basing on complex geophysical monitoring of seismotectonic processes

JGD.
1999;
Volume 1(2), 1999, Number 1(2), 1999
: 120-126
Authors:
  1. Т. Verbytskyi
  2. Yu. T. Verbytskyi
1
Carpathian Branch of the Institute of Geophysics named after. SI. Subbotin NAS of Ukraine
2
Department of seismicity of the Carpathian region of the Subbotin Institute of geophysics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Using methods of factor, correlation and regression analysis anomalous component investigation of temporal variations of geophysical field characteristic (power of local earthquakes, endogenic microseisms, geotemperatures, the Earth's crust deformation, atmospheric pressure and temperature) registered at the Transcarpathian network of regime geophysical stations (RGS) in 1992-1997 have been carried out. To separate anomalous components from series of geophysical field characteristics harmonic components and trend have been excluded by means of filtration in a spectral domain. The investigation results confirm high informativity of microseisms the Earth's crust, their correlation with temporal variations of local earthquake power. Variations of geophysical field characteristics investigated anticipate by 2-3 months variations of earthquake power. A statistical model of temporal changes of local earthquake power has been developed on the base of anomalous components оf geophysical field variations during 1992-1996, This model makes it possible to predict the time of local seismicity enhancement in order to take due precautions. Special testing held at RGS data in 1997 testifies to good correlation between variations "predicted" and observations.

earthquakes
geophysical fields
microseismic of the earth's crust
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