Long-Term Prediction of Fertilizer Price: Stability and Mean-Reversion of Long-Run Equilibrium Level
Commodity price returns – especially those for fertilizers – are known to exhibit non-Gaussian features, time-varying behavior, and structural heterogeneity. Simple models with constant parameters have a tendency to overlook such empirical attributes. In this article, we propose a class of stochastic models designed to reflect the non-homogeneous (time-dependent) nature and heavy-tailed distributions of fertilizer price dynamics. Our model extends the simple Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process by incorporating time-varying drift and diffusion terms. Precisely, the long-run e