Forecasting results of demographic burden on working-age population in the countryside in regions of ukraine

Problem setting. In the list of indicators, pursued by the State Strategy of Regional Development for the period up to 2020, inter alia, the demographic burden on population aged 16 to 59 was identified. The aging process of the Ukraine’s population and  dwindling of the working population have not shown the reduction of those indicators value.

Recent research and publications analysis. Forecasting of changes in the population structure of Ukraine was a subject of research in many institutions, organizations, projects etc. During the implementation of the project “Building Capacity in Evidence-Based Economic Development Planning” in a few cities of Ukraine there were prepared their “profiles”. There are also publications, dedicated to the problems, concerning the impact of the Ukrainian population aging on its structure, and comparative analysis of the impact of demographic processes on the labor market in Ukraine and European countries as well. In 2009 the Institute for Demography and Social Studies named after Mykhailo Ptukha of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine formulated demographic forecasts in the regions of Ukraine. However, there is a lack of publications, dedicated to forecasts indicators of demographic burden on working population in countryside.

Highlighting previously unsettled parts of the general problem. The purpose of article is to compare the regions of Ukraine with the projected values of demographic burden per 1 000 of working-age population, including persons residing in rural areas, and to compare results of related indicators, provided in the State Strategy of Regional Development for the period up to 2020 as well.

Paper main body. Demographic burden is calculated as quotient of the two components (population aged under 15 and over 60 years) to third component-population aged 16 – 59 years. In order to obtain projections of demographic burden, we made the calculations based on analytical model for forecasting the population structure of different age groups. Total fertility rate (TFR) is the basis of the first cohort population projection (aged to 4 years). For each further 5-year cohort (5 years or more) the evolution coefficient of its number is calculated.

The website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine provides the information of the population by age groups in regions. This information is the basis of forecasting of population structure changes in the future. The age structure is very irregular, caused by joint actions of various processes, that had led to the “demographic holes” in the past (World War II and Holodomor had deep influence). In order to obtain projections as of 2020 (date of expiration of the State Strategy of Regional Development), statistics on the structure of the Ukrainian regions population in 2015 were taken into consideration. The gap of 5 years derives from the fact that mentioned analytical model uses five-year age cohorts.

We calculated the projections of demographic burden per 1 000 of working-age population in the regions of Ukraine in the countryside. On the average, around the country it will reach: in 2020 – 709, and in 2025 – 760 persons per 1 000 of population aged 16 to 59. The highest value of demographic burden per 1 000 of working-age population in the countryside is expected in 2020 in Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi and Rivne Regions (over 750). Its highest value in 2025 is being projected in Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Donetsk, Dnipro, Luhansk and Zaporizhia Regions (over 790). The results may be taken into account for strategic documents concerning village development at national and regional levels.

Conclusions of the research and prospects for further studies. The results of calculation showed the deviations of demographic burden on the working-age population from the indicators, given in the State Strategy of Regional Development for the period up to 2020. The projections, concerning changes of the population of countryside, illustrate the tendency of significant increase of demographic burden on the working-age population in Ukraine in general (by 7%) and in all regions (by 4 – 11%) as well. The prospects of further research are prediction of changes in the population structure in the countryside in the regions of Ukraine according to the All-Ukrainian Population Census, due to be conducted in 2020.