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Assessment of balance reliability in local elecrtic system with alternative renewable sources of energy

The research suggests a solution of the actual problem of analyzing the instability of generation of renewable sources of energy (RSE), in particular, solar power plants (SPP). The impact of instable RSE generation on the power balance in a local electric system is shown. The law of distribution of solar power plant’s generation for a certain time interval of the day during a year is analyzed. A mathematical model of SPP generation is proposed in the form of Gaussian mixtures.