stochastic models

Reports from modern conflicts clearly highlight technological changes in military strategies, tactics and doctrines. At the same time, artillery is still playing a huge role in combat operations, which in turn increases the demand for artillery ammunition and creates additional logistical challenges. Ammunition of insufficient quality greatly impacts the outcome of artillery combat operations. The study identifies the lack of a mathematical model which considers the possible ammunition resource limitations and defects in artillery systems when estimating the effectiveness of target firing.

The article considers the problem of forecasting extreme temperature phenomena as one of the key components of ensuring the stability of the functioning of modern natural-technogenic and socio-economic systems in the face of climate change. The relevance of the study is due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of abnormally high and low temperatures, which cause significant risks to energy infrastructure, transport systems, the agro-industrial complex and public safety.