1. JGD
  2. All Volumes and Issues
  3. 1(10), 2011
  4. The long-term time-series prediction of the debris flow activity in Carpathian mountains' hydrogeologic region territory

The long-term time-series prediction of the debris flow activity in Carpathian mountains' hydrogeologic region territory

JGD.
2011;
Volume 10, Number 1
: 38-46
https://doi.org/10.23939/jgd2011.01.038
Received: April 12, 2011
Authors:
  1. T.B. Chepurna
  2. Eduard Kuzmenko
1
Research Institute of Hydrogeology, Engineering Geology and Ecology
2
Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas

Analysis of the debris flow formation factors which cause the long-term activity of debris flows is made. The methodology of the debris flows prediction subject to meteorological, hydrological, seismic, heliophysical factors is proposed. The regularities of long-term seasonality of these factors by using autocorrelation and spectral analysis are revealed. The integral rate of probability of debris flow intensification is calculated. The time series of this integral rate is extrapolated and the following peak of debris flows activation is predicted.

debris flow
time series
autocorrelation
spectral analysis
extrapolation
  1. Ayzenberh M.M., Kahaner M.S. Hidroloho-hidro-hrafichna vyvchenist' selevykh yavyshch na Ukrayi¬ni. Selevi potoky na terytoriyi Ukrayi¬ny. – M.: Nedra: 1959. – 145 s.
  2. Geodinamika Karpat / Pod red. S.S. Kruglova. – K.: Nauk. dumka, 1986. −136 s.
  3. Kuzmenko E.D. Universalnyiy algoritm prognozirovaniya ekzogennyih geologicheskih protsessov // Materialy VIII Mizhnar. nauk. konf. “Monitorynh nebezpechnykh heolohichnykh protse¬siv ta ekolohichnoho stanu seredovyshcha”. – K.: KNU im. T. Shevchenka, 2007. – S. 16–17.
  4. Oliferov A.N. Geograficheskie aspektyi melioratsii selevyih landshaftov. – Simferop. un-t, 1982. – 76 s.
  5. Prohnoz hidrometeorolohichnykh umov ta tenden¬tsiyi vynyknennya nadzvychaynykh sytuatsiy u berezni 2010 roku: za danymy Ministerstva nadzvychay-nykh sytuatsiy Ukrayiny (elektron¬nyy resurs). – http://www.mns.gov.ua/opinfo/ 4998.html.
  6. Ruban S.A. Nikolishyna A.V. Gruntovi vody Ukrayiny − Dnipropetrovs'k.: DV UkrDHRI, 2005. − 426 s.
  7. Rudko G.I. Eryish I.F Opolzni i drugie geo-dinamicheskie protsessyi gornoskladchatyih oblastey Ukrainyi (Kryim, Karpatyi): − K.: Zadruga, 2006. – 624 s.
  8. Seli Ukrayiny (Pratsi II ukrayins'koyi selevoyi na-rady) / pid red. A.Ye. Babynets'. – K.: Nauk. dumka, 1966. − 167 s.
  9. Universitetskiy tsentr injenernoy geodina¬miki i monitoringa (UTSIGM). Selevyie konferen-tsii (elektronniy resurs). – http:// www. ucegm.front.ru/conferences.htm.
  10. Fleyshman S.M. Perov V.F. Seleopasnyie rayo¬nyi Sovetskogo soyuza. – M.: Izd-vo MGU, 1976. – 308 s.
  11. Debris flow 2011. Post conference report (елек­тронний ресурс). – http://www.wessex.ac.uk/ 10-conferences/debris-flow-2010.html.