An environmental impact of waste batteries was analysed (focusing on certain types like nickel-cadmium, lead-acid batteries). The study also adopts a quantitative analysis method, combined with China's battery production, sales, import and export data (2014–2023), and obtains data through the United Nations Commodity Trade Database and the China Battery Association report. The Weibull life distribution model was used to estimate the waste battery generation in China. The calculation is also based on the average lifetime and recycling rate of batteries. China's imports of batteries generally showed a downward trend, while exports showed an upward trend, especially lithium batteries (both primary and lithium-ion rechargeable). With a constant increase in batteries production, amount of batteries on Chinese market has grown during last 10 years, although some battery types (lead-acid, nickel-cadmium) demonstrate reduction due to the replacement with other batteries. According to our calculations, waste lithium batteries (driven by the new energy industry) and lead-acid batteries (huge stock market) are the main contributors to waste battery volume growth, covering 99% of around 10.5 million tons of waste battery generation in China. Further research prospects are to introduce more variables (such as technological progress and consumer habits) to improve the waste battery generation prediction model through dynamic model optimization.
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