Development of the technique of landslides forecasting with the application of geophysical methods

Purpose. The purpose of the researches is to provide effective forecasting of landslide hazard of the local level. Methodology. The methodology consist in complex approach to the analysis of geological and geophysical information obtained from landslide-prone areas. Thus, when predicting the spatial development or intensification of landslides on the local level it is appropriate to apply a complex integrated quantitative interpretation of geological and geophysical data with the calculation of function of a complex index of landslides factors that makes it possible to assess the danger of sliding on the quantitative probability level. Results. The appropriateness of use of complex integrated quantitative interpretation of geological and geophysical data for landslide processes forecasting with application of geophysical methods is proved. Such approach provides landslide processes forecasting at a quantitative probabilistic level with the use of function of a complex index of the effective parameters which are coordinated with landslide danger. The basic complex of geophysical methods of study of landslide processes is determined: a method of vertical electrical sounding, a method of a natural impulse electromagnetic field of the Earth and a method of natural electric field. At necessity of detailed elaboration this complex can be supplemented with additional methods: refraction shooting, radio wave raying and emanation survey. The detailed algorithm of carrying out of the complex integrated quantitative interpretation of the geological and geophysical data is resulted. Geological and geophysical parameters which are necessary for complex interpretation (geophysical: natural impulse electromagnetic field of the Earth intensity for different antenna orientation; natural electric field potential; electrical resistivity and power of geoelectric horizon; speed of elastic waves; tension of the secondary electromagnetic field of radio wave raying; radiation intensity of radon emanations; geological: power of potentially sliding rocks according to the drilling data; geomorphological: points altitude of the earth's surface) are proved. The principles of transformation input and output parameters into effective parameters and ways to present final results (forecasting maps) are described. Geological and geophysical parameters are coordinated with the landslide danger at a quantitative level. Originality. The technique is developed and а detailed algorithm of quantification of complex integrated interpretation of geological and geophysical data is given. Thise algorithm provides the prediction of landslides on quantitative probability level using effective complex index function parameters agreed with sliding danger. Practical significance. The application of the results makes it possible to investigate the landslide-prone areas to determine the status of landslide hazards at the quantitative level and predict the emergence or intensification of landslides.