Integrated geoinformation modelling for the siting of industrial solar power plants considering landslide processes in mountainous areas

The article presents an integrated approach to assessing the suitability of territories for the placement of industrial solar power plants (SPPs) in mountainous conditions, taking into account the spread of landslide processes, which are a key natural constraint for infrastructure development in the Carpathian region. The object of the study is the Kosiv district of the Ivano-Frankivsk region, an area characterised by complex geological structure, increased susceptibility to landslides, and growing investment interest in alternative energy projects. The relevance of the work is determined by the need to account for geodynamic risks in the spatial planning of energy facilities and the insufficient integration of geostatistical methods into project practice. The methodological basis of the study is a combination of geoinformation modelling and geostatistical interpolation tools. Vector analysis of spatial constraints was performed based on buffer modelling around infrastructure facilities, water networks, buildings, and forest areas, making it possible to identify conflict-free zones. Next, morphometric criteria, such as slope angle and exposure, were applied, considering orographic requirements for efficient electricity generation. All criteria were integrated into ModelBuilder, which ensured the reproducibility and automation of the spatial analysis process. A geostatistical risk assessment of landslide processes was implemented by constructing a semivariogram and a spatial autocorrelation model (Moran's I), which revealed a high degree of clustering of hazardous points. Ordinary Kriging and Co-Kriging methods were applied to construct the risk surface, taking into account topographical factors. The results obtained enabled the determination of spatial differentiation of risk within the study area with high interpolation accuracy. The residual validation error (RMSE ≈ 4.47) confirms the model's high quality, and Co-Kriging using relief derivatives (slope and aspect) showed better adaptability to mountainous conditions. At the final stage, a spatial ranking of plots was conducted for areas exceeding 1.5 ha and a geometric shape index of less than 1.8. This ensures the effectiveness of their potential use for the placement of SPPs. The analysis results show that only about 13% of the suitable areas meet the configuration requirements and have an acceptable level of landslide risk (less than 46%). Based on integrating the risk map with the array of prepared sites, a summary map of optimal areas for SPPs placement was created, considering technical and natural constraints. The scientific novelty of the study lies in its first-ever full-scale geostatistical assessment of landslide risk in the context of solar energy facility planning in the Ukrainian Carpathians. The practical significance is determined by the possibility of directly applying the results to form-spatial development plans and environmentally safe development of territories. The presented approach can be adapted for other regions, including the Carpathian region as a whole, which is characterised by active geodynamic processes, and can be applied in environmental impact assessments for alternative energy facilities.