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  3. Volume 10, Number 3, 2023
  4. Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic

Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic

MMC.
2023;
Volume 10, Number 3
: pp. 944–955
https://doi.org/10.23939/mmc2023.03.944
Received: October 27, 2022
Revised: June 25, 2023
Accepted: June 27, 2023

Mathematical Modeling and Computing, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 944–955 (2023)

Authors:
  1. A. El Mansouri
  2. I. Smouni
  3. B. Khajji
  4. A. Labzai
  5. M. Belam
1
Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC research team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologies, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Khouribga Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco
2
Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC research team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologies, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Khouribga Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco
3
Laboratory of Analysis Modeling and Simulation, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences Ben M'Sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco
4
Laboratory of Analysis Modeling and Simulation, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences Ben M'Sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco
5
Laboratory LMACS, Sultan Moulay Slimane University, MATIC research team: Applied Mathematics and Information and Communication Technologies, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Khouribga Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco

In this study, we propose a discrete time mathematical model (SEIQR) that describes the dynamics of monkeypox within a human population.  The studied population is divided into five compartments: susceptible ($S$), exposed ($E$), infected ($I$), quarantined ($Q$), and recovered ($R$).  Also, we propose an optimal strategy to fight against the spread of this epidemic.  In this sense we use three controls which represent: 1) the awarness of vulnerable people through the media, civil society and education; 2) the quarantine of infected persons at home or, if required, in hospital; 3) encouraging of vaccination of susceptible persons.  To characterize these optimal controls, we apply the Pontryagin's maximum principle.  The optimality system is solved numerically using Matlab.  Therefore, the obtained results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed optimization approach.

discrete mathematical model
monkeypox
optimal control
Pontryagin's maximum principle
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