forecasting

Simulation is carried out by numerical analysis of the dynamic system equations by the Runge-Kutta method. Consistently described the construction of a model that takes into account both interspecies competitionand ranks of other factors: light, water-logging, age structure, rainfall, external influences. The results of simulation obtained on the created software. The possibilities of using the created model local level to ensure the development of an information and decision support in forest management.

A computer based decision support system is proposed the basic tasks of which are adaptive     model constructing and forecasting of financial and economic processes. The system is developed with the use of system analysis principles, i.e. the possibility for taking into consideration of some stochastic and information uncertainties, forming alternatives for models and forecasts, and tracking of the computing procedures correctness during all stages of data processing.

The article suggests and describes a GMDH algorithm for the synthesis of co-operative immune network in the solution of tasks of forecasting of time series. Conducted comparative experiments have shown that the use of external criteria improves adaptability, robustness and accuracy of the obtained solutions.