forecasting

Forecasting indicators of sustainable development of Ukraine

The article proposes approaches and indicators for assessing the effectiveness of state regulation of sustainable development. The indicators of sustainable development of Ukraine according to world ratings are investigated. Forecast of indicators of sustainable development for the next three years is carried out. The influence of each individual indicator on sustainable development of Ukraine is determined.

Exponential smoothing constant determination to minimize the forecast error

One of the fundamental issues in exponential smoothing is to determine the smoothing constants.  Researchers usually use the determination available in the statistical software.  However, the result may not able to minimize the forecast error.  For this study, the optimal values of smoothing constant are based on minimizing the forecast errors, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE).  The double exponential smoothing method or Holt's method is chosen where two constant values must identify specifically the level and trend estimate, respectively.  The real d

Information technology for time series forecasting by the method of the forecast scheme synthesis

The study is devoted to the development of information technology for forecasting based on time series. It has been found that it is important to develop new models and forecasting methods to improve the quality of the forecast. Information technology is based on the evolutionary method of synthesis of the forecast scheme grounded on basic forecast models. The selected method allows you to consider any number of predictive models that may belong to different classes.

Architecture for the Information System of the Cryptocurrency Content Integration and Formation on the Basis of the Exchange Activity Analysis

The processes of content analysis, integration and formation with the consideration of cryptographic needs of the user are investigated. Using the developed formal model and conducted a critical analysis of methods and technologies for forecasting the cryptographic

Macromodelling as an approach for short-term load forecasting of electric power system objects

In the paper methods of construction of mathematical models intended for the power consumption forecasting are discussed. Alternative method of forecasting of defined object using discrete macromodels which allows to conduct quantative analysis of characteristics of the electric energy consumption in the future using known previous data obtained during the field test is proposed.

Forecasting deformations of nuclear power plant structures

When studying the dynamics of sedimentation of the foundations of nuclear power plants, paramount importance, in addition to regular measurements, is acquired by their theoretical prediction. Since the amount of sediment affects a variety of different factors, it is practically impossible to take them into account in mathematical modeling. Even the consideration of several factors leads to a system of partial differential equations, the realization of which is a rather complex mathematical problem.

Effectiveness evaluation of discrete macromodelling to forecast power consumption of electric power system component elements

The paper is concerned with a method intended for forecasting electric power consumption using discrete macromodels of daily and annual electric power consumption of defined objects. The method provides the possibility of estimating qualitative characteristics of future electric power consumption based on known prior data.

Обумовини розвитку науки і техніки на порозі ХХІ століття

In this paper the possible directions of further development of science and technology are presented. The choice of these areas is subjective, and the demographics are taken into account, because people are simultaneously creators and consumers. Displaying advances in technology supported by science, without which these achievements would not have been. Attention is paid to the development of the economy, which in a general sense is identified with increasing prosperity.

Studying and forecasting of the phosphates pollution dynamics in watersheds and antropogenic water management landscape dynamics: application to the small carpathians rivers’ watersheds

The paper concerns the results of the quantitative study of dynamics for phosphates concentrations in the Small Carpathians rivers watersheds in Earthen Slovakia by using methods of nonlinear analysis and forecasting, chaos theory and dynamical systems. The conclusions can be viewed from the perspective of carrying out new algorithms for analysis and forecasting of the dynamics and evolution of anthropogenic water management landscape. Chaotic behaviour of the phosphates concentration time series in the watersheds of the Small Carpathians is studied.