Purpose. Evaluation of possible causes of earthquakes in the area of waters by comparing the Earth's surface deformations, caused by their own variations of water, with deformations, caused by stress from pressure created ponds. Method. The method is based on the hypothesis of the possibility of excitation of the earthquake as a result of the fatigue defects, which accumulated in the intense tectonic fault due to oscillation of seiche-triggered wave. Lithosphere deformations, caused by pressure of seiche-triggered waves, form the lattice of antinode lines. Results. Increasing of mean sea level at 104.99 meters in the last 17 700 years has led to the filling of the basin of Azov Sea and to the increase of the area of Black Sea. Comparison of deformations of the Black Sea bottom, which caused by the load from the pressure created by waters, with deformations of seiches origin does not disprove the assumption that fluctuations of water surface in the sea, caused by standing waves, can contribute to the excitation of the earthquake. It is assumed impact on seismic intensity of the basin from seiches of Azov Sea, the maximum fatigue effect of which is comparable to the effect of fatigue actions seiches of Black Sea. Thus, indirectly confirmed the possible impact on normative seismicity of water seismic zone static load, caused by the weight of the water and created this pore pressure, and compared these changes with the variation of pore pressure conditions, caused by groundwater. In our case, groundwater condition is a function of its own, seiche fluctuations of water. In addition, the impact on seiche seismically active tectonic fault distinguished position power lines that form a grid. Originality. We developed model of seiche-triggered deformation of the ground. According to the model, field lines of the field of long-period seiches oscillations form lattice with sizes of cells, which depend on the morphometric characteristics of waters. Changes of the seismic intensity of zone of waters occur due to the accumulation of fatigue defects in seismically active tectonic fault, concentrated in the vicinity of field lines. Practical significance. Using the lattice model of seiche-triggered deformation of the ground allows predicting possible earthquakes. To evaluate the seismic intensity we propose two criteria: type of seismically active tectonic fault and its location relative to the field lines of seiche-triggered oscillations; direction of change of the fatigue defects of the fault.
1. Anakhov P. V. Vysokotochne rujnuvannja ljodovogho pokryvu vodojmy [Precise destruction of ice cover reservoir]. Vodne ghospodarstvo Ukrajiny – Water industry of Ukraine (Ukraine), 2014а, No. 3, pp. 22–25.
2. Anakhov P. V. Pidvyshhennja vyrobitku potuzhnosti ghidroelektrostancij za rakhunok energhiji sejshiv [Increase of hydroelectric power due to seiches energy]. Energhetyka: ekonomika, tekhnologhiji, ekologhija – Power Engineering: economics, technique, ecology (Ukraine), 2014б, No. 3, pp. 51–55.
3. Arsen'eva N. M., Davydov L. K., Dubrovina L. N., and Konkina N. G. Sejshi na ozerah SSSR [Seiches of the Lakes of the USSR]. Leningrad: Publ. House of Leningrad State University, 1963, 184 p.
4. Baklanovskaya V. F., Blatov A. S., Kondrin A. T., and Chechel I. I. Rezul'taty chislennogo modelirovanija poverhnostnyh i vnutrennih sejshevyh kolebanij v Chernom more [Results of numerical simulating surface and internal seiche fluctuations in the Black sea]. Meteorologija i gidrologija – Russian meteorology and hydrology (Russia), 1986, No. 6, pp. 74–81.
5. Bol'shaja sovetskaja jenciklopedija (v 30 tomah) [Great Soviet Encyclopedia (in 30 volumes)]. Gl. red. A. M. Prohorov. 3-e izd. Moskva: Sovetskaja jenciklopedija – Moscow: Soviet encyclopedia, 1970.
6. Gorjachkin Ju. N., and Ivanov V. A. Izmenenija klimata i dinamika beregov Ukrainy [Climate change and the coast dynamics of Ukraine]. Dopovidi NAN Ukrajiny – Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Ukraine), 2008, No. 10, pp. 118–122.
7. Danilov-Danilyan V. I. Global'naja problema deficita presnoj vody [Global Problem of the Sweet Water Shortage]. Vek globalizacii – Age of Globalization (Russia), 2008, No. 1, pp. 45–56.
8. Nesterov V. V. Issledovanija litosfernyh deformacij sredstvami bol'shebazovoj lazernoj interferometrii. Avtoref. diss. Dr. fiz.-mat. nauk [Research lithospheric deformations by methods of large-base laser interferometry. Avtoref. Dr. phys. and mat. sci. diss.]. Simferopol: Tavrida National V.I. Vernadsky University, 1996, 29 p.
9. Ostrovsky A. A. Vozmozhnaja prichina sezonnoj periodichnosti nekotoryh Kalifornijskih zemletrjasenij [Possible cause of seasonal periodicity of some California earthquakes]. Doklady AN SSSR – Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR (Russia), 1990, Vol. 313, No. 1, pp. 83–86.
10. Tetelmin V. V. Vozdejstvie stroitel'stva krupnyh gidrouzlov na izostaticheskoe sostojanie zemnoj kory [Effect of building large-scale hydraulic engineering construction on isostatic state of crustal]. Gidrotehnicheskoe stroitel'stvo – Hydraulic building (Russia), 2009, No. 11, pp. 46–50.
11. Chekhov V. N., Nesterov V. V., Ivanov Yu. B., and Nasonkin V. A. Sverhdlinnoperiodnye litosfernye deformacii, vozbuzhdaemye sejshevymi kolebanijami [Overlong-period lithospheric deformations excited by seiche oscillations]. Doklady RAN – Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia), 1994, Vol. 336, No. 3, pp. 391–393.
12. Shvets V. A. Apparatno-programmnye sistemy dlja registracii vzaimodejstvija geosfer. Avtoref. diss. kand. tekhn. nauk [Hardware and software systems for the registration interaction of geospheres. Autoref. Cand. techn. sci. diss.]. Vladivostok: V. I. Ilyichov Pacific Oceanological Institute, 2006, 32 p.
13. Gupta H. K. A review of recent studies of triggered earthquakes by artificial water reservoirs with special emphasis on earthquakes in Koyna, India. Earth-Science Reviews, 2002, Vol. 58, No. 3, p. 279–310. doi: 10.1016/S0012-8252(02)00063-6.
14. Gupta H. K. Artificial Water Reservoir Triggered Earthquakes. In: H. K. Gupta (Editor). Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics. Springer, 2011, p. 15–24.
16. Matishov G. G., and Inzhebeikin Y. I. Numerical Study of Azov Sea Level Seiche Oscillations. Oceanology, 2009, Vol. 49, iss.4, pp. 445–452. doi: 10.1134/S0001437009040018.
17. Ryan W. B. F., Pitman W. C., Major C. O., Shimkus K., Moskalenko V., Jones G. A., Dimitrov P., Gorur N., Sakinc M., and Yuce H. An abrupt drowning of the Black Sea Shelf. Marine Geology, 1997, Vol. 138, iss.1–2, pp. 119–126.
18. Talwani P. On the Nature of Reservoir-induced Seismicity. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1997, Vol. 150, iss.3–4, p. 473–492. doi: 10.1007/s000240050089.