Ukrainian Migration as a Structural Factor of Poland's Economic Development: A Dynamic Analysis in the Context of the Last Decade

The article examines Ukrainian migration as a structural factor in Poland's economic development during the period 2014–2024. The study identifies key trends in labor and investment migration and analyzes their relationship with major macroeconomic indicators reflecting economic growth, employment dynamics, and fiscal performance. Particular attention is paid to the channels through which Ukrainian labor and capital participation influence productivity, value creation, and labor market stability in the host economy. Based on official statistical data, an econometric model was developed to assess the quantitative impact of Ukrainian labor force integration and investment activity on Poland's nominal gross domestic product. The empirical results demonstrate that labor migration constitutes the primary channel of positive influence, contributing to an increase in gross value added, labor productivity, and market balance. The integration of Ukrainian workers mitigates labor shortages and supports economic continuity. Ukrainian investment activity plays a secondary but complementary role, supporting entrepreneurship, small business development, and regional economic integration, despite its limited share in total foreign direct investment. Overall, the findings confirm that Ukrainian migration functions as a stable long-term structural factor enhancing Poland's competitiveness, fiscal sustainability, and economic resilience, while forming positive long-term effects for the host economy. The study highlights the importance of balanced migration policy aimed at maximizing economic benefits and ensuring sustainable development outcomes. Future research should focus on expanding the econometric model by incorporating additional variables reflecting fiscal effects, consumption levels, and regional differentiation of Ukrainian migration impact. It is also advisable to conduct comparative analysis between Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries receiving Ukrainian migrants to identify common patterns and differences in structural effects of migration on economic growth.