1. SMEU
  2. All Volumes and Issues
  3. Volume 7, Number 2, 2025
  4. Ukrainian Migration as a Structural Factor of Poland's Economic Development: A Dynamic Analysis in the Context of the Last Decade

Ukrainian Migration as a Structural Factor of Poland's Economic Development: A Dynamic Analysis in the Context of the Last Decade

SMEU.
2025;
Volume 7, Number 2
: pp. 274 - 282
https://doi.org/10.23939/smeu2025.02.274
Authors:
  1. L. Ya. Vankovych
  2. N. Yu. Los
1
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine
2
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine

The article examines Ukrainian migration as a structural factor in Poland’s economic development from 2014 to 2024. The research identifies the primary trends in labor and investment migration and examines their relationship with key macroeconomic indicators. The main channels of influence of Ukrainian labor and investment migration on the Polish economy have been identified and analyzed. Based on statistical data, an econometric model was constructed to quantitatively assess the impact of Ukrainian capital and labor participation on Poland’s nominal GDP. The study demonstrates that labor migration is the primary channel of positive influence, contributing to the growth of gross value added, labor productivity, and market stability. Ukrainian investment activity plays a secondary but complementary role, contributing to the development of small businesses and regional integration. The findings confirm that Ukrainian migration functions as a stable structural factor enhancing Poland’s competitiveness and fiscal sustainability. Future research directions include incorporating fiscal effects, consumption expenditures of migrants, and regional differentiation of migration impact.
The study confirmed that Ukrainian migration has a sustainable positive impact on the economic development of Poland. The results showed that the main factor in this impact is the labor integration of Ukrainians, which ensures an increase in the value added produced and maintains labor market stability. The results obtained have practical significance for developing a balanced migration policy and forming an objective picture of the contribution of Ukrainians to the socio-economic development of the host country.

Ukrainian migration
labor migration
economic development of Poland
econometric model
gross value added
structural factor
labor market
  1. Turchyn, Y. and Ivasechko, O., 2022. Mihratsiyni protsesy ta yikh vplyv na sotsialʹno-ekonomichnyy rozvytok krayin EU [Migration processes and their impact on the socio-economic development of EU countries]. Scientific Bulletin of Lviv National University, 3(100), pp.54–62. (In Ukrainian).
  2. Levytska, O. and Kravchenko, I., 2021. Ukrayinsʹka trudova mihratsiya v konteksti yevrointehratsiynykh protsesiv [Ukrainian labour migration in the context of European integration processes]. Economic Forum, 2(2), pp.118–125. (In Ukrainian).
  3. Vasyltsev, T., Lupak, R. and Rudyk, V., 2020. Ukrayinsʹka trudova mihratsiya yak chynnyk rozvytku silʹsʹkykh rehioniv Polʹshchi [Ukrainian labour migration as a factor in the development of rural regions of Poland]. Economic Annals-XXI, 182(3–4), pp.48–54. (In Ukrainian).
  4. Strzelec, P., Grojec, J. and Wyszyński, R., 2021. The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to Poland’s economic growth. National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 328. [online] Available at: https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/328_en.pdf.
  5. Gromadzki, M. and Lewandowski, P., 2023. The impact of Ukrainian refugees on Poland’s labour market. Institute for Structural Research (IBS) Analytical Report. [online] Available at: https://ibs.org.pl/en/publications/the- impact-of-ukrainian-refugees-on-polands-labour-market.
  6. Duszczyk, M., Kaczmarczyk, P. and Tyrowicz, J., 2022. Fiscal consequences of Ukrainian migration to Poland. Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw.
  7. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2023. International Migration Outlook 2023: Poland Country Note. Paris: OECD Publishing. [online] Available at: https://www.oecd.org/migration/ mig-outlook.htm.
  8. Łażniewska, E., Pilewicz, T. and Sokołowski, J., 2023. Regional characteristics of Ukrainian labour migration in Poland. Working Paper, Poznań University of Economics.
  9. Kaczmarczyk, P., 2019. Economic integration of migrants in Poland: trends and challenges. Migration Studies Review, 12(4), pp.33–45.
  10. European Commission, 2023. Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2023. Brussels: DG Employment.
  11. European Central Bank (ECB), 2024. Main National Accounts (MNA): Poland – Nominal GDP in current prices (million EUR). [online] Available at: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/MNA/MNA.A.N.PL.W2.S1.S1.D. D1._Z._T._Z.EUR.V.N.
  12. OFX, 2024. Historical Exchange Rates – Yearly Average Rates. [online] Available at: https://www.ofx.com/en-us/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/.
  13. Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych (ZUS), 2024. Statystyki dotyczące cudzoziemców i wynagrodzeń w Polsce (Statistics on foreigners and wages in Poland). [online] Available at: https://www.zus.pl/documents/10182/2322024/Cudzo- ziemcy+w+polskim+systemie+ubezpiecze%C5%84+spo%C5%82ecznych_2024.pdf and https://www.zus.pl/en/baza-wied- zy/skladki-wskazniki-odsetki/wskazniki/przecietne-wynagrodzenie-w-latach.
  14. Główny  Urząd  Statystyczny  (GUS),  2023.  Działalność  gospodarcza  przedsiębiorstw  z  kapitałem zagranicznym w 2023 r. (Economic activity of enterprises with foreign capital in 2023). [online] Available at: https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/podmioty-gospodarcze-wyniki-finan... niefinansowe/dzialalnosc-gospodarcza-przedsiebiorstw-z-kapitalem-zagranicznym-w-2023-r-,26,7.html.
  15. Ministerstwo Finansów Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej, 2015–2024. Informacja dotycząca rozliczenia podatku dochodowego od osób fizycznych za lata 2014–2023 (Information on PIT settlements for 2014–2023). Department of Income Taxes, Warsaw. [online] Available at: https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse.
  16. Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), 2023–2024. The Living and Economic Situation of Migrants from Ukraine in Poland: Reports 2023–2024. Department of Statistics, Warsaw. [online] Available at: https://nbp.pl.