The problems of traffic management in large cities are complicated as the increase in traffic volume far exceeds the road network capacity. It leads to saturation of the road network, which negatively affects its functioning. This article analyzes the state of the art of improving the quality of road traffic by predicting the size of traffic after the implementation of traffic management measures. While the issue of modeling traffic flow parameters based on technological factors has been sufficiently studied, the problems of considering the human factor need to be clarified. The object of study is traffic flow on the city's road network. The criteria used by drivers to compare the characteristics of alternative traffic routes were identified based on the field study results. Based on the data obtained, the parameters of alternative routes that drivers choose when driving on the road network are formed. According to the survey results, the most significant factor is the minimum mileage along the route. Deviations from the shortest route were determined to determine the patterns of distribution of correspondence of non-route vehicles along alternative routes. It made it possible to define the distribution of transport correspondence along alternative routes. Since the process under consideration is probabilistic, the law of distribution of a random variable was determined. After having determined the law of distribution of a random variable for the data obtained, the calculations showed that the change in the random variable is well described by the gamma distribution. It was determined that the share of transport correspondence that will be carried on them decreases as the length of the route deviates from the shortest one. The obtained results make it possible to predict road network congestion by modeling the distribution of traffic flows. In further research, it would be advisable to analyze the distribution of transport correspondence by other criteria.
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