Optimal control strategy for the administration of the third vaccine dose in the treatment of pandemic COVID-19

2023;
: pp. 841–853
https://doi.org/10.23939/mmc2023.03.841
Received: September 11, 2022
Revised: January 09, 2023
Accepted: January 10, 2023

Mathematical Modeling and Computing, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 841–853 (2023)

1
Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation, Casablanca, Morocco
2
Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation, Casablanca, Morocco
3
Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation, Casablanca, Morocco
4
Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation, Casablanca, Morocco
5
Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation, Casablanca, Morocco

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 infection, taking into account the division of the population according to vaccination criteria.  Our goal is to demonstrate the positive effect of receiving the third dose of the Corona vaccine.  We proposed two strategies to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic respectively awareness programs on the importance of the third dose of the vaccine and the delivery of treatment to infected individuals who have health problems.  Pontryagin's maximum principle is applied in order to characterize the optimal controls, and the optimality system is resolved using an iterative approach.  At last, numerical simulations are executed to verify the theoretical analysis using MATLAB.

  1. Sallam M.  COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy worldwide: A concise systematic review of vaccine acceptance rates.  Vaccines.  9 (2), 160 (2021).
  2. Bullock J., Lane J. E., Shults F. L.  What causes COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy? Ignorance and the lack of bliss in the United Kingdom.  Humanities and Social Sciences Communications.  9 (1), 87 (2022).
  3. Khubchandani J., Sharma S., Price J. H., Wiblishauser M. J., Sharma M., Webb F. J.  COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy in the United States: A rapid national assessment.  Journal of Community Health.  46 (2), 270–277 (2021).
  4. Lazarus J. V., Ratzan S. C., Palayew A., Gostin L. O., Larson H. J., Rabin K., Kimball S., El-Mohandes A.  A global survey of potential acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine.  Nature Medicine.  27 (2), 225–228 (2021).
  5. Cerqueira-Silva T., Katikireddi S. V., de Araujo Oliveira V., Flores-Ortiz R., Júnior J. B., Paixão E. S. et al.  Vaccine effectiveness of heterologous CoronaVac plus BNT162b2 in Brazil.  Nature Medicine.  28, 838–843 (2022).
  6. Dolgin E.  COVID vaccine immunity is waning – how much does that matter?  Nature.  597 (7878), 606–607 (2021).
  7. Mizrahi B., Lotan R., Kalkstein N., Peretz A., Perez G., Ben-Tov A., Chodick G., Gazit S., Patalon T.  Correlation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine.  Nature Communications. 12 (1), 6379 (2021).
  8. Lin S., Kennedy N. A., Saifuddin A., Sandoval D. S., Reynolds C. J., Seoane C. S., Kottoor S. H. et al.  Antibody decay, T cell immunity and breakthrough infections following two SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses in inflammatory bowel disease patients treated with infliximab and vedolizumab.  Nature Communications.  13, 1379 (2022).
  9. Shaukat N., Ali D. M., Razzak J.  Physical and mental health impacts of COVID-19 on healthcare workers: a scoping review.  International Journal of Emergency Medicine.  13 (1), 40 (2020).
  10. Salo J., Hägg M., Kortelainen M., Leino T., Saxell T., Siikanen M., Sääksvuori L.  The indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination on healthcare workers’ unvaccinated household members.  Nature Communications.  13 (1), 1162 (2022).
  11. Domingo P., de Benito N.  Alpha variant SARS-CoV-2 infection: How it all starts.  EBioMedicine.  74, 103703 (2021).
  12. Xie T., Lu S., He Z., Liu H., Wang J., Tang C., Yang T., Yu W., Li H., Yang Y., Yang H., Yue L. et al.  Three doses of prototypic SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccine induce cross-protection against its variants of concern.  Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy.  7 (1), 61 (2022).
  13. Tawinprai K., Siripongboonsitti T., Porntharukchareon T., Wittayasak K., Thonwirak N. et al.  Immunogenicity and safety of an intradermal fractional third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/AZD1222 vaccine compared with those of a standard intramuscular third dose in volunteers who previously received two doses of CoronaVac: A randomized controlled trial.  Vaccine.  40 (12), 1761–1767 (2022).
  14. Kousathanas A., Pairo-Castineira E., Rawlik K. et al.  Whole genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical Covid-19.  Nature.  607, 97–103 (2022).
  15. Sulbaran G., Maisonnasse P., Amen A., Effantin G., Guilligay D., Dereuddre-Bosquet N., Burger J. A., Poniman M., Grobben M., Buisson M. et al.  Immunization with synthetic SARS-CoV-2 S glycoprotein virus-like particles protects Macaques from infection.  Cell Reports Medicine.  3 (2), 100528 (2022).
  16. Fotsa-Mbogne D. J., Tchoumi S. Y., Kouakep-Tchaptchie Y., Kamla V. C., Kamgang J. C. et al.  Estimation and optimal control of the multiscale dynamics of Covid-19: a case study from Cameroon.  Nonlinear Dynamics.  106 (3), 2703–2738 (2021).
  17. Kopfová J., Nábělková P., Rachinskii D., Rouf S. C.  Dynamics of SIR model with vaccination and heterogeneous behavioral response of individuals modeled by the Preisach operator.  Journal of Mathematical Biology.  83 (2), 11 (2021).
  18. Khaloufi I., Lafif M., Benfatah Y., Laarabi H., Bouyaghroumni J., Rachik M.  A continuous SIR mathematical model of the spread of infectious illnesses that takes human immunity into account.  Mathematical Modeling and Computing.  10 (1), 53–65 (2023).
  19. Pawar D., Patil W., Raut D.  Fractional-order mathematical model for analysing impact of quarantine on transmission of COVID-19 in India.  Mathematical Modeling and Computing.  8 (2), 253–266 (2021).
  20. Ilnytskyi J.  Modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the limit of no acquired immunity.  Mathematical Modeling and Computing.  8 (2), 282–303 (2021).
  21. Yavorska O., Bun R.  Spatial analysis of COVID-19 spread in Europe using "center of gravity" concept.  Mathematical Modeling and Computing.  9 (1), 130–142 (2022).
  22. Balatif O., Elhia M., Bouyaghroumni J., Rachik M.  Optimal Control Strategy for a Discrete SIR Epidemic Model.  International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Modeling.  2, 1–8 (2014).
  23. Faro-Viana J., Bergman M. L., Gonçalves L. A., Duarte N., Coutinho T. P., Borges P. C., Diwo C. et al.  Population homogeneity for the antibody response to COVID-19 BNT162b2/Comirnaty vaccine is only reached after the second dose across all adult age ranges.  Nature Communications.  13 (1), 140 (2022).
  24. Andrews N., Stowe J., Kirsebom F., Toffa S., Sachdeva R., Gower C., Ramsay M., Lopez Bernal J.  Effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccines against COVID-19-related symptoms, hospitalization and death in England.  Nature Medicine.  28, 831–837 (2022).
  25. Ding W., Hendon R. C., Cathey B., Lancaster E. P., Germick R.  Discrete time optimal control applied to pest control problems.  Involve, A Journal of Mathematics.  7 (4), 479–489 (2014).
  26. Pontryagin L. S.  Mathematical theory of optimal processes. CRC press (1987).
  27. Lenhart S., Workman J. T.  Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models. Chapman and Hall/CRC (2007).