The research of interrelation between seismic activity and modern horisontal movements of the Сarpathian-Balkan region based on the data from permanent GNSS stations
Received: February 03, 2020
Department of Higher Geodesy and Astronomy of Lviv Polytechnic National University
Department of Higher Geodesy and Astronomy of Lviv Polytechnic National University

The problem of earthquake prediction, as well as its interrelation with horizontal movements of the Earth’s crust has not still been solved. The purpose of the work is to establish a possible correlation between generalized parameters of horizontal movements of the Earth’s crust and seismicity. The Carpathian-Balkan region in connection with frequent and spatial differentiation of earthquake activity and well-known geological structures is chosen as a field for the research. Methods. Based on the data of permanent GNSS stations in 2010-2019, the horizontal velocities and deformations of the Carpathian-Balkan region are analyzed, as well as the maps of fields of the annual distribution of dilatation are added. The annual generalized parameters of seismicity for separate blocks are calculated from the data of seismological stations. Based on the spatial analysis of horizontal deformations and generalized seismicity, the correlations between absolute values of dilatation and semi-major axis of ellipse of scattering earthquake epicenters are established. As the results, the authors demonstrate some territories covered by the annual high degree of correlative connection between semi-major axis of the ellipse of scattering earthquake epicenters and absolute values of dilatation. The biggest correlative zone includes the Rhodopes, a subduction zone between Nubia and Europe tectonic units. The territory of stable correlations also coincides with Vrancea. The research suggests that the interconnection between horizontal deformations and generalized seismicity occurs only in subduction zones where there are both intense seismic activity and regular crust deformations. This is confirmed by the appearance of correlation zones which are located along one side of the active faults.

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