Macromodelling as an approach for short-term load forecasting of electric power system objects

In the paper methods of construction of mathematical models intended for the power consumption forecasting are discussed. Alternative method of forecasting of defined object using discrete macromodels which allows to conduct quantative analysis of characteristics of the electric energy consumption in the future using known previous data obtained during the field test is proposed. Features of obtaining the experimental data and procedure of discrete autonomous macromodels creation using the”black box” approach in the form of state variables on their basis are described. It is proposed to create discrete models of electric power consumption. A method of choice of the initial variables vector and the way of its introduction into macromodel to be developed because  of the explicit absence of the input variables vector. Expedience of application of discrete autonomous macromodels for short-term power consumption forecasting is shown. Developed mactomodel of daily power consumption of the power supply region served by electric power substation for short-term forecasting of electric load is presented and verification of obtained results is carried  out.