The article is devoted to the study of the essence and significance of customs regulation as an indicator of a country’s economic development. It identifies the relationship between the effectiveness of customs policy and the growth of the state budget, economic development, and the welfare of the population. Using correlation-regression analysis, the study models the impact of customs instruments – exports, imports, and customs payments – on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Correlation- regression analysis makes it possible to quantitatively assess the above-mentioned indicators. This analysis objectively shows which of the indicators (export, import, or customs payments) has the greatest influence on GDP, and how strongly the model’s factors can change GDP when other variables remain constant. The importance of correlation-regression analysis lies in ensuring the country’s external economic stability through customs regulation mechanisms, as these mechanisms determine the structure of the budget, the investment attractiveness of the country, and its competitiveness. The results of the study revealed a positive impact of customs payments on the formation of GDP, and therefore on the economic development of the country. Consequently, there is a need to introduce changes to the current system of customs regulation in order to enhance its effectiveness, aimed at increasing customs revenues as a tool for stimulating economic growth. The conducted research demonstrated a positive impact of customs payments on the formation of GDP, and consequently on overall economic development. This highlights the need to modernize the current system of customs regulation in order to enhance its efficiency and increase customs revenues as a tool for stimulating economic growth. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using the developed model to forecast economic development trends and to support well-grounded management decisions in the field of customs policy.
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