Model based decision support system for forecasting financial processes


O. Kozhukhivska, P. Bidyuk, A. Kozhukhivskyi

A computer based decision support system is proposed the basic tasks of which are adaptive     model constructing and forecasting of financial and economic processes. The system is developed with the use of system analysis principles, i.e. the possibility for taking into consideration of some stochastic and information uncertainties, forming alternatives for models and forecasts, and tracking of the computing procedures correctness during all stages of data processing. A modular architecture is implemented that provides a possibility for the further enhancement and modification of the system functional possibilities with new forecasting and parameter estimation techniques. A high quality of final result is achieved thanks to appropriate tracking of the computing procedures at all stages of data processing: preliminary data processing, model constructing, and forecasts estimation. The tracking is performed with appropriate set of statistical quality parameters. Examples are given for modeling and forecasting of nonlinear and nonstationary financial and economic processes. The examples show that the system developed has good perspectives for the practical use. It is supposed that the system will find its applications as an extra tool for decision making when developing the strategies for enterprises of various types.

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