A Model for Optimizing State Management of Resource Provision for Military Operations in Wartime

This study develops a scenario-based optimization model for state governance of resource provision for military operations under wartime conditions, explicitly accounting for high external turbulence, binding budget constraints, time pressure, and the risk of failing critical provision standards.  The study proposes a scenario-based and probability-driven analytical framework that ranks governance initiatives by expected effect and risk and selects an optimal portfolio of initiatives under given budget and risk constraints.  Methodologically, external turbulence is modeled as a first-order autoregressive process capturing shock persistence, while Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate distributions of initiative outcomes under multiple plausible trajectories. Net present value is used as an integrated measure of managerial and financial effects, ensuring comparability of alternatives across the planning horizon. Downside and tail risks are explicitly quantified using Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk, enabling the definition of risk limits for governance decisions.  Based on this framework, a portfolio approach is implemented to evaluate feasible combinations of initiatives within the budget constraint, compare portfolios on an effect–risk plane, and analyze the distribution of outcomes for the optimal portfolio.  The results show that, under the baseline scenario, initiatives focused on demand forecasting and inventory policies exhibit the highest robustness, as they provide positive quantile safety margins, minimize the probability of negative outcomes, and reduce tail losses.  At the same time, larger initiative portfolios may deliver higher expected effects but require stricter risk governance due to increased coordination complexity and higher variability of outcomes.  The practical value lies in providing a structured decision-support framework for setting priorities, defining risk limits, and sequencing the implementation of governance initiatives supported by digital technologies. This contributes to strengthening the resilience of resource provision systems and improving the effectiveness of state decision-making in the medium-term planning horizon.